Here’s your weekly dose of Open Cup metagame analysis, with the data from Hearthstone Masters Qualifiers Indonesia #55 to #72.
We now keep track of bans, so you will find how often each class is banned by players running a specific lineup, what the win rate is depending on the ban, which deck is most frequently banned from each lineup, etc. The charts are inserted in the tier list below, and you can take a closer look by visiting Off Curve directly.
There has also been a lot of news this week. In case you missed it, the rules around the distribution of the Masters Tour prize pool have been updated (TL;DR less money at the top end but everyone is guaranteed $850), there will be 6 Masters Tour events this year, some of them synced with DreamHack, and some cards are getting nerfed very soon!
Data summary from Off Curve:
Click on the players names to find out their lists and copy deck codes from Yaytears. The names in bold are Qualifier winners who generously sent us an explanation of the strategy behind their lineup. Scroll past the tier list to read them.
Meta Defining Lineups:
Warbrigner Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior (Tredsred)
Pretty Good Lineups:
Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Zoo Warlock, Galakrond Warrior (hauj)
Deathrattle Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior (Avelline)
Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Zoo Warlock, Galakrond Warrior (Bravo)
Holy Wrath Paladin, Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman (Bankyugi & Jaina)
Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Hand Warlock (TheRabbin)
Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Zoo Warlock, Pirate Warrior (Xut)
Highlander Mage, Highlander Rogue, Galakrond Shaman (Ouate)
Quest Priest, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior (goodwill)
Highlander Mage, Holy Wrath Paladin, Galakrond Shaman (DimitriKazov)
Highlander Mage, Holy Wrath Paladin, Control Warrior (kondrash228)
Highlander Rogue, Highlander Warlock, Highlander Warrior (Tidal)
Quest Priest, Galakrond Shaman, Freeze Warlock (TechnoGoose)
Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Zoo Warlock, Highlander Warrior (Kheldaan)
Token Shaman, Hand Warlock, Pirate Warrior (BabyBear)
Highlander Rogue, Highlander Warlock, Galakrond Warrior (Rpbalance)
Face Hunter, Deathrattle Rogue, Pirate Warrior (DenBut)
Treant Druid, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior (FeelFree)
Treant Druid, Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Zoo Warlock (Saumon)
Comments from the winners:
Xeno on Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
“Well I always try to bring a lineup that beats the most common archetypes in the field. In this case though I countered the 3 most popular decks with… the 3 most popular decks. I feel like playing anything else than Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior and either the Rrogue I brought or Highlander Rogue is just a mistake. These 3 classes are way more powerful than the other ones and queueing into anybody with a different lineup than this already felt kind of relieving because the mirror lineup felt like the worst match up. When it comes to building the decks I just looked up stats on hsreplay and adjusted them with my own experience. I banned Shaman unless I saw my opponent playing an outdated list, then I banned something else. I am really looking forward to the nerfs because I feel like this meta is extremely unhealthy for conquest tournaments.”
LooGiiQQ on Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
“I used this lineup this weekend because I think that it’s the only viable one if you want back to back top 8s. The ban is Shaman or Face Hunter. In Rogue I prefer Anubisath over Whelp for the mirror. In Shaman I don’t like Witch’s Brew so I went with Elemental Reaction.”
Scr3am on Highlander Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
“I picked the Bomb package in Galakrond Warrior over the Scion loop things simply because the Bomb engine destroys Highlander decks and gives you an edge over Holy Wrath and stuff + the Scion Loops are bad against Flik Skyshiv. Also i cut the aggro package with Inner Rage and Bloodsworn and stuff to fit a little control package in there . Simply because most likely every dexk in the meta right now loves to go wide on board. Especially Warpath was pretty good against all those zoo decks and Scion for tempo plays . Shield Block and Shield Slam is good against single big minions and would help against Face Hunter in theory. Besides this big overthinking about Warrior I simply picked Highlander Rogue because it’s the best Rogue deck in my opinion. And Galakrond Shaman because it has the best matchups overall.”
Khaius on Highlander Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
“First ban is Rogue, since Deathrattle Rogue is good against all 3 of my decks while Highlander Rogue is good against Warrior and Shaman. Second ban is Zoo Warlock, since it is good against my Rogue and Shaman. Lineups with Zoo are likely to ban my Warrior, which makes banning Zoo even more necessary. Third ban would be Quest Priest; although the stats say that Rogue and Shaman are very favoured against Quest Priest, I do not think that it is accurate and it should be near 50/50. Therefore Quest Priest is more of a threat than it seems.
The way I built this lineup is not to target anything, but to bring all 3 decks that are weak to Rogue so that I can just ban Rogue and be favoured against everything else. I started out testing other decks and ended up with these 3 as my highest performing decks.
For the Highlander Rogue, I have tried both the Deathrattle and non-Deathrattle versions and I can conclude that they both work. You can bring Deathrattles if you are expecting a greedier field like Highlander Mage / Handlock and even the mirror. Bring the other if you expect more aggro and Warrior in the field. The Deathrattle version is less consistent and you will lose games to bad draws more often, but can also immediately close out games with a good draw. For the Shaman deck, the new version with the Spirit of the Frog is definitely better than the original, because you have a better draw engine and more proactive plays, rather than just stalling until you get Galakrond. A possible tech card i used to run was 1x Bloodlust, which makes the matchup against Holy Wrath Paladin, Highlander Mage and Handlock much better. For Warrior, the Dragon version by ZachO is working a lot better for me than the other 2 versions (enrage version and control version). Personally i feel that the control version does not have a real win condition and can struggle to close out games, while the enrage version loses a lot of tempo transitioning to the post-Galakrond phase. The dragon version has the most solid gameplan which is to try and get many copies of scion, stabilise and win through board control and value. The most important combo is dropping Scion and Barista on turn 8.
To all the players still trying: Never give up because there are still several weeks of qualifiers left, and you never know when you will win one. Also, I am currently a free agent looking for a team to represent at Indonesia, so any help in spreading the word is greatly appreciated!”
Tredsred on Warbrigner Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
“I used Galakrond Warrior in December ladder, and couldn’t make good finish. I lost many times against Shaman/Rogue, but I could win the others. Because of this I thought Shaman/Rogue/Warrior is the best lineup and Warrior is 3rd deck in terms of deck power.
I found that NikolajHoej Shaman list was winning on ladder. I had no Shaman experience, so I decided to use it with no change. Highlander Rogue was the most popular Rogue deck, but I pick Deathrattle Rogue because of ban format. Highlander Rogue vs Galakrond Shaman is even, Highlander Rogue vs Galakrond Warrior is even. Deathrattle Rogue vs Galakrond Shaman is unfavorable, Deathrattle Rogue vs Galakrond Warrior is favorable. Even if I pick Highlander Rogue, I have to ban Shaman because of Galakrond Warrior is unfavorable to Shaman. I thought to pick Deathrattle Rogue and ban Shaman is the most powerful strategy. In addition, Deathrattle Rogue vs Highlander Rogue is favorable, so I had an advantage Shaman/Rogue/Warrior mirror match. I had no Deathrattle Rogue experience, so I use the best winrate deck on HSReplay. Galakrond Warrior is my own list.
I tested many cards in December ladder and built this.
Battle Rage: If I winning on board, I can win without this. If I losing on board, I can’t use this.
Dragon Breeder: Great card on turn 5, turn 8 with Scion of Ruin. Without Scion of Ruin, 2/3 minion is not bad.
EVIL Quartermaster: You can use this on turn 3 and turn 4. Good for mana curve.
Barista Lynchen: 8 mana combo is too heavy. I can’t write about all the cards, so I wrote about the notable cards.
Finally, I write down what I felt during the tournament. It was not intended, My lineup targets Galakrond Warrior. I almost banned Shaman, and I got banned Shaman all match. There were many Rogue/Warrior mirror match. Deathrattle Rogue was really strong against Galakrond Warrior. The key of this meta is Warrior mirror match. I played this many time in December ladder, so I was confident in this. All my opponents picked Battle Rage in Warrior deck. I realized Battle Rage is really weak in open deck list format. I played for board advantage every time. Sometime, I didn’t hit face to care Battle Rage. My opponent’s Battle Rage had become trash, so I won all mirror match 5-0.
Practice the weakest deck in the lineup and win mirror match is one of the best strategy in conquest format. Thank you for reading.”
Alza‘s blog post on Tredsred’s Warbrigner Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
Grantz on Highlander Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Zoo Warlock:
“Well, for all time except qualification that I won I played with tempo version of Galakrond Warrior, then I decided that this deck is too unstable. So I changed Warrior for Zoolock: this deck has a good win rate against Rogue and Shaman, 2 of the most popular classes at the moment plus had common ban with my Rogue – Galakrond Warrior in all his versions. Most of the people play with Scarab Egg + Grim Rally list, but I don’t like eggs, because it’s too dependent on activators, in my list you can freely play most of the cards in hand. In the Shaman deck I think all cards except Mana Tide Totem are core: Totem is just additional option to draw your win condition: Galakrond + Shudderwock. Highlander Rogue list is just most popular list on tourneys right now.”
Elsa on Highlander Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Zoo Warlock:
“I chose Galakrond Zoo Warlock to defeat Rogue. But it was actually important that the Galakrond Zoo Warlock and Highlander Rogue defeated many Shamans. Galakrond Shaman doesn’t seem to be too bad for these decks. Most of the time I banned Galakrond Warrior. Sometimes Holy Wrath Paladin and Galakrond Zoo Warlock.”
Avelline on Deathrattle Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior:
“Well I took the strongest decks and tried to make them as good as possible in the mirror matches. Because Shaman Rogue Warrior is the most popular line up but also the strongest. Shaman is the standard list, didn’t change anything, it mostly got banned. Made the Warrior as aggressive as possible as and built a Rogue with a stronger early game and more stuff to do if I didn’t draw apothecary. Ban is Shaman.”
Jaina on Bankyugi‘s Holy Wrath Paladin, Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman:
“With that lineup, you have to ban Rogue because of the Shirvallah Paladin. Smart opponents will ban your Paladin but you don’t want to take a guaranteed lose risk. Also if they ban your Paladin, you will still be playing with the best 2 decks of the meta, if they don’t, you should be beating their Shaman with Paladin easily which is almost everyone’s playing with. My Shaman list is the classic one, but Rogue list runs a Necrium Vial which makes me feel missing something without. I want to say good luck to all other competitors and sending loves to my ‘DOGDOK HS Family’.”
Ouate on Highlander Mage, Highlander Rogue, Galakrond Shaman:
“Ban Face Hunter :)”
TheRabbin on Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman, Hand Warlock:
“So I took a look at the top classes (sham-war-rogue) and war seemed the easiest to target. At first I played with Quest Priest instead of the warlock but the deck felt too weak whenever I faced something else than war. My ban would usually be face hunter but I didn’t face a single one, so I usually went for Shaman or Zoolock. If my opponent had both I usually banned Zoo over Shaman as they were more likely to ban the Handlock, leaving me the Sham mirror over two bad match ups. As for the decklists I took Orange’s Shaman list as I had a fair success with it on ladder, while the Rogue and the Handlock were taken straight up from Hsreplay.”